BB19 Odds and Opinions
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BIG BROTHER 19
OPINIONS, ODDS, AND THE FINAL PREDICTION
By MattD


Hello again everybody!!!   Well we're finally down to the final episode! Another long season of Big Brother has wound down. Nothing in the past few days has gone against the script. Paul took Part 1 of the final HOH , and Josh took Part 2. They will square off for the final HOH of the season. I will look ahead to what players I would have if BB20 is indeed an allstar season. Then I'll review the season including the Cast, Twists, Feeds, and Production, then comment on the individuals who played. These are my thoughts:

BB20 (all-stars?): I have no idea if next season will or won't be an al-star season. I'm not going to specifically name a 16 or 17 person cast, but I'll offer my opinion on who I would consider. First of all my dream cast would be all previous winners, but I'm pretty sure that will never happen. But my first rule is any previous winner who is able and willing to be on the show, can be on the show. There's plenty of those people I wasn't crazy about, there's plenty of them that might not have deserved to win, but they did win, and if you're going to call your season "all-stars" you need as many of them as you can. The object of the game is to win, not be the person that came in 3rd or 4th an "should of won". The second rule is no non-jury member is to be considered. Again in a different format, I wouldn't mind some of those people playing again, but if you went out pre-jury, you weren't an all-star. Third, I wouldn't bring back any non-winners that have already played twice or more. I liked Janelle for instance, but I wouldn't be fired up about seeing her for a 4th time. So who else does that leave? Real quickly, I wouldn't put any of the non-winners from seasons 1-7 on there. In the first all-stars, there were 14 people, 13 of whom didn't win their seasons. So there's a couple of non-winners I wouldn't mind seeing from those years, but for the most part everyone from those years that deserved a 2nd shot, got one. BB8, Dick was the winner, Dani played a 2nd time already making her ineligible. I liked Zack, Eric, and Jessica and would possibly consider them. BB9 Adam was the winner, that's plenty from that year. BB10 Dan was the winner, Jessie played a second time and was non-jury that year anyway. It was a good season, Memphis, Keesha, Renny would be good choices. Jerry would be too, but he'll be 85 next year. BB11 Jordan was the winner, Jeff has played again, Kevin and Michelle were good HG's. BB12 Hayden was the winner, Rachel won the next year, Britney and Brendon have played a second time, so I'd pick one out of Lane, Enzo, Matt. BB13 Rachel won, Jordan and Dick were past winners, Dani, Jeff, Brendan were playing for the 2nd time. No one else sticks out, Porsche if your short of females, Adam if want a 40-something. BB14 Ian won, Dan and Mike were past winners, Britney and Janelle had played previously. Frank has played a second time since. Shane and Danielle weren't popular, and not my top choices, but they'd be considered. BB15 Andy won. The producers are biased towards Elissa, I'm biased towards Helen. McCrae could be considered, as well as Judd. BB16 was Derek's year, Nicole was a future winner. Cody would be my top choice, the producers like Frankie, and Beast Mode. BB17 was Steven's year. Johnny Mac was my favorite, Vanessa deserves another shot. James has played again don't need to see him a 3rd time. BB18 Nicole's year. Frank, Dayvonne, James all played and lost a second time. Victor is the one that sticks out as someone I'd like to see. BB19 Paul will either be an automatic by winning or ineligible by losing a 2nd time. Maybe I should make an exception for finishing 2nd twice if that happens, but I don't know that many would be fired up about seeing him a 3rd year in a row. Josh if doesn't win would be considered.

So now to be clear out of the ones I considered, I would hope none of them would be available because I want all winners. So how many of these would actually make it depends on how many winners I could get. Most of the recent winners are male, so the females might have a better shot. And I don't have anything against the ones that have played twice and lost, Britney's my favorite player for example, but in an all-star setting to get a 3rd shot you have to have won once.

Anyway here's my grades for the cast, feeds, twists,  and production.

Cast gets a D. Casting itself I thought was improved. More people over 30. They stopped the practice of casting someone because of a sibling, we got Willie, Elissa, Frankie, Paulie, and Tiffany in recent years, I'm glad they stopped that. The cast itself was one of the most unlikeable in history.

The twists get a D-. It's gotten to the point where in the early weeks people going home mostly just hope for a twist instead of campaigning. Dominque hallway admitted that's what she was doing.

Feeds get a B.  They do better than they used to at not blocking them. There were fights almost every week from the beginning to the end of August.

Production gets a C+. They've done well to be on the air 19 seasons and counting, but this wasn't one of the better seasons.

A quick comment about each of the ones that have been eliminated.

Cameron (17th). It's a horrible twist for anyone to go the first night.

Megan (16th). Quit the game.

Jillian (15th). That's the thing about the early evictees, people forget about them. It seems like 3 years ago when she was on the show.

Cody (14th). First time in history the week 1 HOH has been evicted the next week.. Willie probably would have been had he not been expelled. Cody deserved to be evicted in week 2, through twists and what-not he was around for 55 days.

Dominque(13th) She was quite popular on twitter the week she was evicted.

Ramses (13th) He was evicted the week after the Battle Back so there were still 13 in the house. This was on Jessica's HOH, so when you see her on twitter taking shots at people that didn't go after Paul, remember this.

Jessica/Cody (12th). This was the eviction that Jessica got to block. Just delayed the inevitable.

Jessica (12th): Her being such an idiot on twitter has had the boomerang effect of making Cody the favorite in the America's Favorite Player vote. Instead of her and Cody cancelling each other out, the Paul-haters are all voting for Cody.

Cody (11th): Cody being against Paul had NOTHING to do with him being smarter than everyone, he hated Paul before he walked in the house, anyone who tries to deny that is rewriting history.

Elena (10th) Looking back on it, I'm glad she did what she did. Got 5K, made Alex have a miserable HOH week.

Mark (9th) He got more likeable as the show progressed. He's one of the ones that tried to work with Cody, no one really could.

Matt (8th) He was a waste of space.

Jason (7th). He was a good houseguest, very entertaining. If he would have lasted another week or two, he might have made to the end on his own.

Raven (6th) At the Open calls, you're usually in a bar-type setting, though there's some waiting. If you were at ONE Open Call in a bar full of people trying to get on Big Brother, you telling me you couldn't find 8 females that would make better houseguests than her? Or 8 males better than Matt? And there's about 25-30 of these around the country.

Alex (5th) When she won the double eviction HOH, she put up the two people that weren't part of Jason's blindside. She really could have done some damage there.

Kevin (4th) He's got my vote for Favorite Player, but looks like he's going to come in 2nd. He was very entertaining, often very funny. He's the first houseguest I know of that went to an Open Call, but hadn't watched the show. I've met people like that, but he's the first I know of that actually made it.

Odds: It's not the slam-dunk for Paul that I was thinking on Thursday. Just don't forget though, we only see highlights from the jury house, we don't know for sure what they're thinking. Last year's jury vote surprised me, this year nothing will surprise me. I honestly don't know what they'll end up doing. It's out there for all three of them, that isn't usually the case.

Paul 3-2
Josh 3-2
Christmas 4-1

Paul 3-2: Now there's people that are saying he got a 3-week pass, and that's why he's still here. Cody did go after him week 1, and I've seen people say it was for sure he would have gone. We'll never know what would have happened without the free pass, but if he would have gone it would have been inconsistent with the rest of the season. Cody didn't have any votes lined up, outside of Jess no one even knew he was putting him up. The second thing is even after the pass there were still 13 people in the game. Dr.Will,  after someone got expelled was one of just 11 in the house. So what Paul has done is still remarkable. Yes, as the only vet he benefited from the halo effect of that. But he also had his first two HOH's wiped out by twists. He's played the game harder and longer than anyone else. But he's still got to win this HOH, he's still got to worry about the jury if he does. If the jury is bitter, and it looks like it will be, that's his problem not the jury's. If he wins he deserved it, if he loses he deserved that.

Josh 3-2: I know he's telling Paul he's taking him, but my hunch is he won't. Is that the right move? If he saw the same jury footage we did, would he *want* to be next to Paul? This leads me to the next question, would he beat Christmas in the finals? If he indeed takes down Paul I *think* he would, but these people are so unpredictable, nothing would surprise me. He's done way better gamewise than I ever thought he would. AS far as most surprising things of the season it's a coin-flip between Josh being in contention to win, and Cody being in contention for favorite player.

Christmas 4-1: In the previous 17 seasons, only Maggie has failed to win either of the first two parts of the final HOH, and gone on to win the game. I looked back on that and was surprised. I think Paul is taking Josh and I think Josh is taking her, but of course we don't know. She did well play almost the whole season with a broken foot. Like the rest of them she's far from perfect, but like I've said she deserves credit for making it this far. It's not a Victoria like thing where there's virtually zero chance of her winning, if either of them takes her, it's out there.

The Final Prediction: Paul wins the final HOH, takes Josh and evicts Christmas. I'll say Josh will beat him 5-4 with Matt/Raven Alex and possibly Jason dissenting.

Ok thanks to all I've talked to throughout the season. Enjoy the finale!!!!

MattD (@MattD34 on twitter)


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