BB19 Odds and Opinions
may25 BB19 2
By MattD

A very pleasant hello once again!! We finally get to evict someone on Big Brother 19 wouldn't you know! Josh got an HOH and surprisingly targeted Elena, that is longer happening. There's a special episode a week from tomorrow (Friday), no idea what it could be for. In spite of still having 12 in the house we're past the halfway point of the game (timewise). As always there's plenty to discuss, these are my thoughts:

Still on schedule for a 9/20 finale: It doesn't officially get announced until I believe they start sending people to the jury house, but assuming two double eviction nights with no one else coming back, and no more non-eviction weeks, I think it works out to a 9/20 finale. Speaking of the non-eviction night, it was a horrible idea, even worse than bringing back an evictee. We didn't even get the POV meeting until the Thursday show, they were clearly stretching to fill the time they caught a break when there was a huge fight to show, and then Julie claimed the hex caused all this drama and tension and all that. Somehow there seems to be plenty of that every week this season, all that hex did was hold the game up for a week.

Any guesses on next Friday's special episode?:  My guess is an episode of non-game stuff. I seriously doubt it'd be a second battle back or anything like that (though I don't put anything past them), because Jessica is the last non-jury member, so even if next week's episode is a double eviction, that's still only two people in the jury house. Maybe they'll play for prizes or something, but don't forget Kevin already has $25K, that's more than they've ever given out for an in-game prize or temptation, so there's probably not much money left in the budget for more cash prizes (they really wanted Paul in the house pretty bad). Maybe instead of a double eviction next Thursday, it'll be another eviction night Friday (doubtful). We'll see what they have up their sleeve.

Odds: Not a lot of changes, Paul's still the betting favorite, still about 7,8, maybe 9 people that can conceivably win it if things go their way. Here goes:

Paul 4-1
Christmas 6-1
Jason 7-1
Alex 7-1
Kevin 8-1
Josh 9-1
Matt 10-1
Elena 11-1
Mark 13-1
Raven 20-1
Cody 50-1
Jessica (no odds)

Paul 4-1: One thing that cracks me up is reading people's posts on twitter or wherever and acting like since someone wants the same thing Paul wants in a given week, that means the whole season is going to be like that. Like I say again, still 12 people left, being on Paul's side for now doesn't mean someone's going to automatically do what he wants them to forever. For me the frustrating thing is we should be to the part of the game where people have to decide if this is the time to take a swing at Paul, but because of all these twists and temptations and such, we'll probably get Paul vs Cody Part 5 or whatever this week.

Christmas 6-1: It was a decent decision to use her "ring of replacement" this week. I suppose it may come up later in the game where she could have used it and wishes she still had the opportunity, but that was as good a time as any. It seems to me like a comp Cody would have been good at. Not being able to compete in some comps could still bite her I suppose, but she's got a pretty good idea how to play this game.

Jason 7-1: He got caught by Josh having a game conversation with Mark. That's a thing this season I guess, pretend like you're playing chess and talk game with someone. Is it that hard to move a few pieces to make it look like you're playing? I think he's in decent shape in the near future at least until Cody goes, even then he might be alright.

Alex 7-1: A fairly smooth week for her, almost won the POV. Outside of Christmas she's the other female that could realistically win the game.

Kevin 8-1: He and Jason actually talked to Cody about working together/teaming up but the events on Tuesday pretty much ended that. It's easy to imagine him in the final 4, even final 3, but I don't know he goes on from there. He's as popular inside the house as he is outside of it, and I don't think it'd be wise for anyone to take him to the finals even if he's at the end in a Victoria-esq kind of way. His social game is as good as anybody who's ever played.

Josh 9-1: Turns out he's a big fan of the show and knows something about how to play, which actually surprised me. I was taken aback by his targeting Elena, but I can see the strategy. If you use an HOH on someone that just about everybody wants out, it might feel like a waste. It worked out to Jessica leaving anyway, but he's still got to watch out for Cody or Mark winning HOH and actually Elena as I'm sure if she gets power she'll catch on to the fact she was originally the target. I still don't think Josh will win, but it's more plausible than I thought.

Matt 10-1: He needs to start doing something, win an HOH, make a big move, a new alliance, something. Still plenty of time left to do that of course.

Elena 11-1: I thought she had positioned herself better than she had. Her back and forth with Mark is getting a bit old. What she really needs is for Mark to go next, and then go from there.

Mark 13-1: He can win comps, that's one point in his favor. I don't know how an HOH week of his would go though. We all complain about he editing sometimes, but I'll just say he looks way better on TV than he does on the feeds. I don't think he has the mindset to make it through the game.

Raven 20-1: She'll be the one that goes when it's late enough in the game, someone's target wins POV and it's not feasible to knock anyone else out. I'd be surprised if someone goes after her in the next few weeks, but maybe she'll be the second one out on the second double eviction night.

Cody 50-1/Jessica no odds:  Between the two of them they'll have been evicted three times after tonight. They're good at comps, pretty terrible at everything else. They actually became more popular with so many people hating Paul this year, because well the enemy of my enemy is my friend or whatever that is. If you'll recall Cody did seemingly build a pretty good alliance, then Cody went after Paul without telling any of them. There's no reason to want to work with him after that. It's because of themselves that it's them against the house (except maybe Mark). These twists that have saved them are pretty much just delaying  the inevitable. That being said it looked like they might be alright this week, the momentum did seem to be moving towards Jessica being evicted, but it was far from a sure thing, then Tuesday happened, and that was that. It's time to move on from these two.

Predictions: Jessica voted out 7-1-0 with Cody voting out Raven. Paul wins HOH gets someone maybe Matt or Raven to throw the safety comp and take a spot on the block, he then successfully backdoors Cody. And Julie will announce next week as a double eviction week.

Ok that's it for now, enjoy Big Brother 19!!

MattD  follow me on twitter @MattD34

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