BB19 Odds and Opinions
mar30 BB19
By MattD

Hello again everybody!!   Well the week is finally over. Production has successfully slammed the game into neutral, so to no surprise things stand as they did last week. Cody and Jessica are on the block, and they're both safe assuming Jessica uses her hex. When the feeds came on the night of June 28, there were 15 still in the house. Unless something changes today and Jess doesn't use her hex, then next week before the eviction on August 10, there will still be 12 people left in the house. Anyway here are some thoughts:

Did something happen to my DVR or did they not show the POV ceremony on last night's show? There was plenty of drama to show I get that, but outside of the Josh/Mark spat which took place on Friday night in real time, the other footage involved Paul, Cody, or Jessica. They dragged out the Cody/Jessica stuff so much I FF'd through a little of it. There's 9 other people in the house, they need to start producing the show that way. Where they take the game from here I have no idea. There probably won't be a double eviction for two more weeks, because they threw in another twist giving whoever the targeted houseguest is another chance to save themselves. The added competition to the week probably makes it impossible to have a double eviction. As far as the behavior of the houseguests none of them are perfect, you can rip into any of them legitimately (except for Kevin) , but as far as the gameplay I don't really have anything too bad to say about the other nine of them. I'd be happy to let Paul and Josh slug it out until one was gone. Once one or both of them are gone, then we'll see who does what. Now that being said I'm not exactly *confident* in the strategic abilities of a lot of them, and many of them will make bad decisions, but like I pointed out last week, there's 12 people left, the game hasn't even really started yet. Stop giving people second and third chances, either find a way to jam 18 people in the house or shorten the number of days in the season, this is just silly.

Let's review:  The big them this season is about Temptation and Consequences. Julie keeps telling us that for every temptation there's a consequence. To the surprise of no one Paul won the first temptation, 3 weeks of safety. Then we come to find out, the Consequence doesn't involve him! Ramses had to choose one of three weeks to put himself on the block. Then Christmas wins the 2nd one, the chance to play in a POV where she didn't get picked. Not a POV, a chance to play in one. Not exactly the same level as Paul's, but nevertheless she didn't have to suffer the consequence (Cody/Jess/Jason had to wear a goofy costume). So now we know this whole thing is pretty much BS. I mean at least make Paul be the one that has to choose which of three weeks to go on the block, make Christmas wear the goofy costume, etc. So now we get to the third and what we're told final temptation. Jessica according to them got the most votes and won the chance to block one of four evictions.  Once again we were told there would be a consequence, although by now we knew that it wouldn't involve Jessica. This time it turns out there was no consequence, just another temptation after being told there would be no more. Anyone can play a special competition, win it and you're safe for the week, finish last and you're on the block as the 3rd nominee. So because of Jessica accepting this temptation, there's another temptation that's probably as likely to help her and Cody (or Paul if he's going to be targeted) as anyone in the house. If you know you're being targeted, there really isn't much consequence here either, as you already know you're going up anyway. The people that have been helped and will likely be helped by all this is Paul, Cody, Jessica. And yes if someone is trying to backdoor Christmas, and she's cleared to play, there's a 1 in 6 chance it could help her. Sorry to be so negative, but it's crap like this that pisses me off more than anything.

Odds:  In spite of this being a nothing week game-wise I moved a few people around slightly. Paul will (probably) not win this game, I posted that somewhere and I think I forgot the probably. I still say there's about an 20% chance he will, but with this many people left you have to divvy up the other 80% amongst 11 people, so he comes out on top for now.

Paul 4-1
Christmas 7-1
Jason 7-1
Alex 7-1
Kevin 8-1
Elena 9-1
Matt 11-1
Jessica 12-1
Josh 13-1
Mark 15-1
Cody 20-1
Raven 20-1

Paul 4-1:  He will have had 2 of his HOH's erased by production twists after tonight. If you were trying to rig the game in someone's favor would you erase 2 of his HOH's? I sure wouldn't. Like I've said he got his 3 weeks of safety which everyone knew he would get, and I don't doubt they want him around for as long as possible, but no if you were trying to help him win, you wouldn't keep giving Cody and Jess all these chances. I don't condone what he did on Monday in the least, but as far as gameplay I think he did the right thing by targeting Cody and Jess and seeing exactly what the hex was, and removing it from the game. If he would have gone after somebody else, then those two would be safe next week too.

Christmas 7-1: I don't pretend to know how it's going to play out with her. She seems to me like she's sitting pretty good. The broken foot, and the meds, I don't know how much it's going to affect her.

Jason 7-1: Like I said last week, I'd be surprised if the winner isn't one of the top 6 I have listed here. Jason has the potential.

Alex 7-1: It doesn't surprise me Alex would be one of Jessica's targets, didn't realize she was that big on her list. Those pranks she pulls might end up pissing some people off, who knows.

Kevin 8-1: He really had a tough go of it several years back as it turns out. I'm glad he took that 25K and I hope he gets the other 25K for favorite houseguest if he doesn't make it all the way to the finals.

Elena 9-1: For some reason I don't have a good gut feeling about her in the long run. As of right now it looks to me like she's in pretty good shape. She probably needs to do a week on the block with Mark and get him out of there, just be sure he's the one evicted.

Matt 11-1: He's got a small target on his back because he hasn't done anything to this point in the month and a half they've been in the house. I repeat (again) there's still 12 people left in the house, some seasons there's only been 12 or 13 to begin with. In spite of everything there's plenty of time for him to step up his game and make some things happen. Do I think he's going to do that? No I don't, but with this much time left he could.

Jessica 12-1: One thing I'll point out is when her and Cody get power they don't make the smartest decisions with it. Her HOH she got out Ramses, which is ridiculous. As far as using her hex tonight, that's understandable. If she manages to escape the next week her and Cody are on the block, she might have some potential to last a little while.

Josh 13-1: What can I say about him that hasn't already been said?

Mark 15-1: He is a very sensitive young man.

Cody 20-1:  He says he has no chance, who am I to argue? The way he conducted himself strategically and socially the first week during his HOH, he deserved to be voted out. Either him or Jess deserved to go this week. Given a third chance in this game, there's no reason to think he'll do any better than his two.

Raven 20-1: Drive carefully when discussing her on social media.

Predictions: Jessica uses the hex, making the last week obsolete. Sounds like tonight's comp will be fairly random. I'll throw a dart and say Raven wins the HOH, she nominates Jess and Mark(?), Jess wins POV and the two of them are safe again.

Ok that's it for now. Enjoy the show, enjoy the chaos!!!

MattD  (@MattD34 on twitter)

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