Big Brother 15: Opinions, Odds, and Predictions For July 18, 2013
Written by MattD
Big Brother 15
Opinions, Odds, and Predictions For July 18, 2013
It's been a wild season of Big Brother 15 so far, there's no denying that. At times of course it's been for the wrong reasons, and it hasn't always been pleasant. This past week was no exception although things have seemingly quieted down the last few days. Jeremy's almost certainly going home tonight, hopefully the first in a string of idiots that will go. Anyway here are my thoughts:
They keep adding to it: Maybe it's the 24/7 thing, and that's what makes it look even worse, but to me it's incredible that Aaryn, GM, and others not only said the things they said, but continue to do so. They do know the cameras are on them don't they? Also last week I was poking fun of the fact that Spencer's mother defended him, saying any day now we'll get a statement from family members or friends of Aaryn/GM. which leads to the question where are they? That's the thing that's surprised me the most at this point. Aaryn's brother tweeted something about people overreacting or something, but for the most part I think it's weird we haven't heard anything from them.
Awesome job CBS with the disclaimers NOW. Isn't that something you should have started doing like say 13 years ago, when the show started? What's that saying about locking the barn after the animals escaped? What CBS did was like unzipping your pants AFTER you urinate. The damage is done.
Howard and production, etc: I don't doubt that production does try to influence people in the diary room at least in subtle ways, and in light of the unpleasant controversies we've had this season , they probably wouldn't have been thrilled if Howard had gone on the block and out the door. On Friday I was only able to read updates, but apparently Helen said something to the effect that she didn't think production wanted her to put him up. She also told Amanda that maybe if she had had more time she would have ended up nominating him. Now on last night's show you saw how Amanda was demanding to Elissa that Howard be put up. and she wasn't happy last Friday with Helen either. When Helen said the things she said I think in this case she was full of beans. From the word go, she wanted to backdoor Jeremy, and there just wasn't any reason to put Howard up on the block. She was saying what she said to Amanda to make it appear as though she gave a crap what Amanda wanted her to do.
Odds: The big change here is that Howard just isn't (and wasn't) in as good of shape as I thought he was. Jessie's odds improved a bit, but she didn't move up in the order that much. Judd and Andy are in the best shape right now as I see it.
Judd 5-1 Andy 5-1 Helen 6-1 Candace 7-1 McRae 8-1 Amanda 8-1 Elissa 9-1 Jessie 10-1 Howard 12-1 Spencer 15-1 Kaitlyn 30-1 Aaryn 50-1 GM 75-1 Jeremy 100-1
Judd 5-1: He really is impressive to this point. Well liked, not anyone's target at all. If they continue the MVP twist for much longer I think he'll be the first one not named Elissa to win it. I'm not certain production's going to keep the MVP going for that long however.
Andy 5-1: He knows what he's doing, and how to do it. Like Judd, it's hard to imagine a scenario where he gets evicted anytime soon.
Helen 6-1: She really, really , really needs to tone it down. Strategically she did everything right. Jeremy's a good person to get out this week , and she went about it the right way. I'm happy that she's getting the airtime that she's getting, but I hope for the next three weeks she doesn't win a comp and doesn't get nominated. I don't know that the odds of that happening are great being how in the first three weeks just 5 of the 16 HGs managed to accomplish that, but she's too visible. She's in as good a position that she can be in which is why she has good odds, but if she doesn't lower the decibel level by a notch or ten, she could fall hard.
Candace 7-1: In my opinion, she'll be a bigger target than Helen if the wrong people win HOH. overall she's not sitting bad but there are people that will target her. I kinda hope she wins the HOH tonight.
McCrae 8-1: How long will it take for someone to put him up against Amanda? Unless Howard or Spencer win an HOH quickly it could be a little while. The other question is if Amanda ends up going, will he keep rolling with that alliance?
Amanda 8-1: She is to be commended for the way she sticks it to the idiots in the house, there's no doubt about it. Overall though I didn't care for her attitude this week. There's little doubt who the target will be if she gets HOH.
Elissa 9-1: Still in there, still winning MVP. The reason why I don't know that she will for much longer is that the vote will be split fewer and fewer ways every week, and the longer the others are in the house, the more time they will have to build their own fan bases. the smarter people in the house figured out quickly that if they keep her around and stay on her side, they'll never have to worry about being the third nominee. The ones that used and continue to use her strategically are reaping the benefits.
Jessie 10-1: I might have underestimated her originally. I still need to see some more out of her before I move her up.
Howard 12-1: There's too many people that are after him at this point. He hasn't been nominated to this point, but that will change quickly if he doesn't win an HOH very very soon.
Spencer 15-1: Not sitting great either. He felt the block this week, and I'm guessing he will do so again soon. Him and Howard both need some new allies.
Kaitlyn 30-1: Not impressed at all by her from a strategy standpoint, but she won POV, and was part of that 5-way tie for HOH. Probably the number one thing I'm looking for this week is to see how her game changes with Jeremy gone if at all. And oh by the way had she not used POV I think she'd have gone home. I know most people think it'd have been Aaryn but if someone is willing to keep themselves on the block to keep someone else off, you have to get rid of them pronto. It just makes the other person that much stronger when someone puts their game ahead of their own.
Aaryn 50-1: still there.
GM 75-1: Get off my TV screen.
Jeremy 100-1: Nothing flipped last night, it's extremely improbable he survives tonight.
Prediction time: I wouldn't bet money on the vote being exactly right but I've got 8-2 with Jeremy getting evicted with Katlyn and GM voting out Spencer. The HOH sounds like a Q and A so about anyone can win (scary). I think Elissa will win MVP once again, but maybe not for much longer.
Ok that's all for now. Enjoy Big Brother 15 at 9/8c on CBS, and once again you can follow me on twitter @MattD34. I'll follow you back ASAP.